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Rantings of a Sandmonkey

Be forewarned: The writer of this blog is an extremely cynical, snarky, pro-US, secular, libertarian, disgruntled sandmonkey. If this is your cup of tea, please enjoy your stay here. If not, please sod off

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Hitchens agrees with me when it comes to Osama's last speech

I said that his truce offer was a sign that he is losing, especially that it is the second offer of the kind so far ( the first truce offer was given to the europeans, remember that?). Hitchens seems to agree with me that there is desperation in Osama's voice. And he has a theory on why that is: This comes in the context of a reported and believable split within al-Qaida's own ranks. There doesn't seem much reason to doubt the authenticity of Zawahiri's letter to Zarqawi in Iraq, raising doubts about his strategy of poisoning Iraqi society by targeting the Shiites. Heretics they may be, says Zawahiri, but are you sure that blowing up mosques and mausoleums is the right way to go? Add to this the number of home-grown Iraqi "insurgents" who are turning their guns on Zarquawi's gangsters, and you have a real crisis for the bearded nutbag whose very name used to terrify even some of the stoutest in the West.

I have been attacked for callousness and worse for saying that Bin Laden did us a favor on 9/11, but I am increasingly sure I was right. Until that date, he partially owned Afghanistan and his supporters were moving steadily toward the Talibanization of Pakistan as well. There were al-Qaida sympathizers within the Pakistani intelligence services, armed forces, and nuclear establishment (which then included the A.Q. Khan network). There was also an active Saudi support system, consisting mainly of vast tranches of money, for jihadism worldwide. Now, Afghanistan is lost to Bin Laden and Pakistan has had, at least officially, to modify its behavior considerably. The A.Q. Khan network has been shut down. The Saudi ruling class identifies its state interest with a repudiation of al-Qaida, inside and outside its own borders. And the one remaining regime that openly preached holy war and helped train jihadist forces like the "Fedayeen Saddam"—the pseudo-secular terror state in Iraq—has been irretrievably smashed. Wherever Bin Laden is now, it cannot be where he wanted or hoped to be four and a half years ago.

As I said before, shouldn't be long now!


At 1/24/2006 04:08:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

SAM! Activated the new blogger trackback system. It's somewhere in your settings;

At 1/24/2006 04:57:00 PM, Blogger The Sandmonkey said...

I just did

At 1/24/2006 07:24:00 PM, Blogger Sonic said...


At 1/25/2006 07:09:00 AM, Blogger waterdragon52 said...

I agree that bin Laden's offer is coming from a position of weakness, not strength. The US missile strike in Pakistan came way too close to the top ranks of A-Q for comfort, with one of Al-Zawahiri's sons being among the dead and a top bomb-maker too. Also, Sunni tribespeople in Iraq are fed up with A-Q to the extent that they are variously hunting them down themselves and killing them in reprisal for A-Q killing their leaders in order to cow the tribes into following them or they are allowing A-Q members to be captured or killed by Iraqi or Coalition forces.

At 1/25/2006 07:13:00 AM, Anonymous Jokerman said...

I guess its common sense, If someone in the middle of the battle offers a truce then they need some time out or have realised they cannot win that fight now, its bascially a way out of a long losing confrontation or needing time to regroup.
Will Al Qaeda be here still in the next 20 years? I dont think so, but i can see the news in the future of a New Al Qaeda group using the same name & same ideology.

At 1/25/2006 12:01:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's encouraging to see the dissension among the various terrorist factions,but any so-called truce is probably just a deceptive ploy to take the heat off momentarily.Perhaps Bin Laden has already ordered another huge 9-11 type attack on the US or Europe,to take place when it's least expected...

At 1/26/2006 12:32:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Usama, in the tradition of the prophet, offers a tactical truce. Wouldn't he realize we know there is no peace with the dar al harb and faithful Muslims.

At 1/27/2006 06:56:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

To anon 12.32
No peace with dar al harb?in the tradition of the prophet??? you have got to be joking!!
funny how you guys mention tactics only in battle & not in life. well, you know nothing of the Prophet or dar al harb or even who first used the term.


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