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Rantings of a Sandmonkey

Be forewarned: The writer of this blog is an extremely cynical, snarky, pro-US, secular, libertarian, disgruntled sandmonkey. If this is your cup of tea, please enjoy your stay here. If not, please sod off

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Today's Forecast: Bad things are likely to happen

This is the shorter version of the new Thomas L. Friedman article: "If things go well in Iraq, Be afraid, be very very afraid!" For those who don't feel like reading the whole article, here is the money shot: To the extent that the Baathists and Jihadists have a coordinated strategy, their first priority, I think, is to defeat American forces in the heart of their world. Because if they can defeat America in the heart of the Arab-Muslim world, it will have so much more resonance than setting off a car bomb in Las Vegas - especially now that 9/11 has set the terrorism bar so high in terms of effect. If the Jihadists can defeat us in the heart of their world, and force us from Iraq, it will have a huge impact on the Arab street and shake every pro-American Arab regime. The Jihadists have always understood that Iraq is the ballgame. Iraq is the big one. Winning there is what really advances their agendas. You know, that Iraq is the ballgame, Iraq is the big one stuff? I swear i've heard it being mentioned somewhere here before. Ehh, anyway... The reason things may be getting more dangerous now is that the formation of a freely elected government in Iraq may signal that the Baathist-Jihadist insurgency is being gradually defeated. The U.S. may even be able to withdraw some troops. And there is nothing worse for the Baathists and Jihadists than to be defeated in the heart of their world - and, even more so, to be defeated in the heart of their world by other Arabs and Muslims who are repudiating the Jihadists' vision and tactics. That's true. If they lose there, If Iraq actually works out, the islmaic fundementalists will never live it off. Sure, the true believers will still make excuses for them, but more or less they will be done for in the eyes of the rest of the islamic and arab world. For a while anyway! I fear that when and if the Jihadists conclude that they have been defeated in the heart of their world, they will be sorely tempted to throw a Hail Mary pass. That is, they may want to launch a spectacular, headline-grabbing act of terrorism in America that tries to mask, and compensate for, just how defeated they have become at home. I would have to agree with that. It is their M.O. after all. In short, the more the Jihadists lose in Iraq, the more likely they are to use their rump forces to try something really crazy in America to make up for it. So let's stay the course in Iraq, but stay extra-vigilant at home. He is right, unfortunately, which probably means i will have even more of a hardtime at the airport when i come visit. I am that suspect demographic after all: Young, male, middle-eastern with a very muslim name. That's just great. Fan-freakin-tastic. I just hope a strip search won't be necessary. I never had one before, but i hear that they tend to be rather unpleasant. Sigh...


At 4/13/2005 07:50:00 AM, Anonymous DWMF said...

Friedmann is an idiot. This is typical appeasement logic. If the insurgents are willing to gamble on such atrocities in the face of defeat, they would be even more willing to do so if they were winning, to deliver a "knock-out blow". He is being paid for these ramblings by the newspaper, which is well know for its anti-Republican bias.

At 4/13/2005 09:15:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You should write detailed post about visiting. I am sure it is a pain in the ass to get inside the U.S. from egypt.

At 4/13/2005 10:56:00 AM, Blogger gatorbait said...

It is already a pain. Seems like they cannot quite get the rules of the day down pat. It does not matter which ME country, either. It is a real drag.

At 4/13/2005 06:51:00 PM, Blogger Tina said...

So, what does he want us to do, lose? We have known since day one that there is the possibility of another strike in the US. That's why we developed the Homeland Security Department. That's why people don't mind waiting in line (Americans notoriously HATE waiting in line) and why we keep vigilant.

A strike in the US will only mean a strike in the US. What it will accomplish is all the leftists will suddenly turn very hard right and the fight will just go on with even more vigor.

At 4/13/2005 08:16:00 PM, Blogger Papa Ray said...


If the US is attacked again.

The (American)far left will freak and run for another country. The middle left will blame Bush even more and want the Military to come home to guard their homes and offices.

The middle right will continue on as they always do and the far right will form local militia that will make life hell.

The Mexicans will be shot crossing the borders and the Canadians had better just stay home for awhile.

The europeans will say that the US and in particular Bush deserved it and anything else that happens to us because we killed Islamic and Arabic innocents. But they will start getting more worried about themselves.

The Brits will try and stay on the fence but will have their hands full with their own crazies.

The Aussies will ask what we need and how much and be there for us in any way that they can.

The rest of the world will be happy that the arrogant Americans have been shown that they are not the only dangerous people in the world.

The world will continue to spin and spin its lessons, dry its tears and blood and go on with its seasons.

Papa Ray
West Texas

At 4/13/2005 09:15:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Papa Ray, another attack will only breed hate. We all know we are not the only dangerous people in the world, but we can do the most damage. A UBL wants to spread smallpox around the west, but he cannot yet. The west could spread smallpox around the ME, but decides not to.

I am glad we are still fighting wars instead of looking for Assured Destruction of the enemy.

At 4/13/2005 10:04:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tina, I don't think Thomas Friedman was trying to say that we *should* lose, nor was he trying to say anything like this would be our just deserts. Friedman has been cautiously optimistic on Iraq for a while now, despite having serious issues with the way the war has been handled; and he also was in favor of the war from the start. I think he's simply saying that this is something we need to be aware of and we need to be preparing for.

Papa Ray, I'd say you've pretty much called it on what world reactions will be.


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