Sharon vs. the Likud
I don't know about you, but I don't think if the Likud keeps its war with Sharon that it can survive. This article outlines the possibilities of this war: Option 1: Sharon will triumph. The Likud Central Committee will indeed convene and decide to hold party primaries, but at the last moment the members will shrink back from ousting Sharon, out of fear of losing power. The thousands of party hacks, whose fat jobs stem from their party affiliation, will prefer power with the hated Sharon to going into opposition with Netanyahu. Sharon will continue as Prime Minister until the regular elections in November 2006, with a good chance of being reelected for another four years (until the age of 81). Option 2: Sharon will be thrown out. The Central Committee will decide on early primaries, Netanyahu will be elected as Likud leader. He may set up a new nationalist-religious coalition in the present Knesset. Or, the Knesset will be dissolved and new elections will take place, with Netanyahu leading the united Likud. Sharon will return to his farm. This would be a resounding victory for the settlers, proving that anyone dismantling settlements is committing political suicide. Option 3: the Small Bang. Sharon will lose the Likud primaries, the Likud will split into two, Sharon will take with him about a third of the Likud Knesset faction. He will set up a new coalition with the left-wing and Orthodox parties and continue to govern. If he wins the general elections in November 2006, he will continue to govern as the leader of Likud B. Option 4: the Big Bang. The Likud will split as above, but Sharon will set up a new party together with members of the Labor Party and Shinui. The Knesset will disperse and the new party, led by Sharon, will - as public opinion polls now indicate - win by a landslide. This is widely known as "the Big Bang". I don't know about you, but I don't think Option 2 is even remotely possible. Sharon would never go out quietly and accept defeat by Netanyaho, whom he thinks to be nothing short of a clown. Sharon thinks he is the grand savior of Israel and no self-respecting savior would accept defeat by Netanyaho. Either way it goes, this should get interesting. Did anyone else notice how in all the possibilities, there isn't one where Labor makes a comeback? Does that make them obselete as a party or what?